Tuesday, 7 July 2015

Understanding the recent Surge in Bokoharam attacks

Firstly, My heart felt Condolences to the victims of bokoharam attacks.

Within the past week up till today being (7 july 2015) has no doubt been the bloodiest week for Nigeria and most especially the victims of this attack.

The terrorist group bokoharam have within the past few days, attacked a mosque in Maidugri and those breaking their fast which left about 150+ worshippers dead- While many Nigerians were still mourning the dead, the terrorist group stroke again, but this time, they attacked a mosque in jos killing about 40, and on sunday they attacked a church killing about 8, yesterday again, they tried to attack a mosque in Kano state, but luckily, the suicide bomber was stopped at the gate before she exploded with the bomb killing 1 person, and today being (7 july 2015), Zaria in Kaduna state was attacked killing about 20people.

Ofcourse at this point, a lot of Nigerians will be surprised and wondering; What went wrong? And Why the sudden surge in attacks? During the few weeks leading to the 2015 election up till today, the Nigerian military had stepped up attacks against the group which was occupying many L.G and villages in some part of the North east Nigeria, the group took over many parts and this meant showing the world that they were a powerful force to be reckoned with. However, when the group was occupying some north east villages and declared their so called "independence" or "Caliphate"- Suicide bombing was very minimal at that point. Ofcourse, they felt powerful, and Suicide bombing is generally viewed as tactis for much weaker groups- A case study is ISIS and other groups that only resort to suicide bombing when they start loosing control or when they were weak groups. The case of bokoharam is no different, the group concentrated more in trying to capture more lands from Nigeria to consolidate with their so called "Caliphate" but the attacks and subsequent retrieval of our lands and villages from bokoharam by Our military had undoubtedly weakened them and scattered them even across the borders, With an increased pressure on the phycotic group and the recent visit and strategy by the President of Nigeria; Seeking a broader regional co-ordination, and border control, this no doubt meant attacking and weakening bokoharam from all front and sides. A lot of the groups supplies, both weapons and man power mostly comes from across the border(According to Nigerian military investigation), and with tighter border control and increased intelligent sharing among Nigeria and her neigbors, Nigeria was able to weaken their so called "caliphate" and ofcourse, capture back our lands. Bokoharam and most phycotic terrorist group enjoy feeding on peoples fear, Showing and trying so much to prove to the world that they are still very much powerful, However, their recent attack is a simple case of an ever weakening terrorist group resorting to guerilla tactis(soft target)- It is more like a sinking group trying so hard to prove and spread fears among the Nigerian public that their government cannot protect them. If the Villagers and some Nigerians "buy into" their fears, it means convincing the villagers to swear an allegiance with them because most atimes, we as human tend to ally ourselves with those whom we feel can grant us security most especially when the group tries so hard to prove to the citizens that their government is weak and cannot protect- When faced with a choice of dying or waiting for a perceived weak government, most would no doubt choose to live to die another day. (A case study is ISIS in Iraq and some tribal groups confused about swearing allegiance with ISIS or the coaliation groups- they need to be sure what group will protect them). Though the Nigerian military have done well retaking our lost lands and villages from the group, and taking the fight to the group's "doorstep"But that is only one side of the fight. The Nigerian government and military should find a way to have a broader and more effective intelligent network which should be able to monitor the movement or sells of material capable of producing homemade bombs or explosives. Targeting places of worship, road or market place is very easy, no one knows who bokoharam are; they might be your neigbors, they can be anyone no matter how innocent they may look. In this case, they can make explosives at home and then drive it to a certain place to cause mayhem. There is limited monitoring capability of the Nigerian government.

Even France and USA with all her powerful advances still find it difficult containing attacks on their soil. Be it the random shooters or the Boston bombers, or be it the shooters in France. It is always very difficult for any country no matter how advance she is, to contain a person or group which resorts to guerilla tactis or soft target. However, there is limited patience that we as Nigerians can have, the president might NOT have stayed long in office, but the patients of those in this affected parts are fast dying down, the President should act fast because at this point, those in the affected part do not care if the president just came into office, they just need him to perform a miracle. The President should be able to re-assure Nigerians(not with words but actions) that he can give us Security, this was one of the reasons a lot of Nigerians campaigned and voted for him, he needs to do something fast to keep his popularity rating on the high side. All we can do at this point as concerned Nigerians and human, is to support him, our military personnels, and the victims of this madness but let it be noted that if this attacks persist, at some point, we will loose our confidence in him to grant security which is ofcourse, the Number 1 sole duty of any President or leader. -For no region or country will ever excel to greater with an increased insecurity.

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